Another prediction for an online-only newspaper

UPDATE: Follow the discussion for big media via Howard Owens, Lucas Grindley, and John Robinson, and then follow a related college media discussions via Ryan Sholin and Rich Cameron. I specifically want you to read Sholin and Cameron, as they hit on some of the other characteristics of the college media mix that deserve consideration.

Following on the heels of Paul Gillin’s prediction, Wired News predicts a major newspaper will go online-only in 2007.

I don’t think the economics are there yet for a major newspaper to go online-only. Honestly, there’s still too much money to be made from print advertising and too much invested in print publishing (think about the money invested in printing presses and circulation, for instance) for most major newspapers to give up the print product. And I expect that to remain so for at least the next year. What would change that equation? If enough big advertisers simply abandoned the print platform for online advertising.

However, I could see situations where smaller newspapers - especially college media outlets - seriously pursue an online-only strategy. Indeed, several college media outlets could abandon print in the next year. But the circumstances would have to be right. What are those circumstances?

• A small advertising base
• A majority of funding from student fees
• A small staff
• A visionary editor
• A forward-thinking adviser
• A fully wired campus

Admittedly, these are not the only circumstances that could prod a student news organization to go web-only. But they are the major factors that would help make such a transition possible.

For some outlets, such a move would make tremendous sense, and might actually strengthen the organization after some initial fits and starts. The technology is available, and the tools are relatively inexpensive. The thing that is missing right now is most likely the will to make such a huge change. Let’s face it, there aren’t a lot of role models to follow. Whoever moves online-only first will be among the trailblazers, and trailblazers usually end up facing the biggest challenges.

And I don’t think such a move would necessarily require “getting ready” by focusing more efforts on the web in the short term. A move to online-only might be better achieved by a “sink or swim” approach, sort of like that taken by the Eastern Connecticut Campus Lantern.

If college outlets do start abandoning print, it won’t happen until at least August, when the new staffs come in. So we’ve got a while to watch our “prediction” simmer.

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