If you want a true “doomsday” scenario for major newspapers, read this post by Mark Potts, a former newspaper worker now involved in new media: Newspaper Dead Pool. #

#

Will it happen? Will we see a city without a print daily newspaper within a few years? Absolutely. Do I want to guess where? When I’m talking about this with other doomsayers, I vary between guessing a high-tech city like San Jose or San Francisco, or picking somewhere random (but economically fragile and chain-owned) like Kansas City or Cincinnati. Just a guess. #

And what will happen after the unthinkable occurs? News and information abhor a vacuum. The gap will quickly be filled by local suburban papers, hyperlocal online sites, alternative papers, local blogs, a rightly scaled urban startup paper, online directory sites, craigslist and yes, even TV news. Not to mention the Daily Bugle’s own Web site, which may survive in some form. In fact, all of those exist right now and are already eating away at the Daily Bugle’s traditional hegemony. That’s one of the factors that argues for this doomsday scenario: newspapers are facing competition from all directions, and readers are happily switching to these alternatives. #

Because of that, in fact, the transition might be fairly seamless, after the initial shock. A year or so after the Daily Bugle plays taps, it’s possible that not many of its former readers and advertisers will even miss it. #

I think we’ll see more news operations move online in the college environment over the next couple of years. There are already two: one a truly online operation, and one a PDF download of a print-formatted layout. The pressures are different in the college media world. I can see scenarios where someone begins asking the question: “why are we spending student fees on a printed product when we can put this out online?” This question will be a difficult one for newspapers that get all or most of their funding from student service fees. #

It will be interesting to see what happens with the two college papers that are already online. Will they eventually go back to a print/online mix? Will they adapt and grow their online audience effectively? So many questions… #

#